Senior Economist, Make UK
Business confidence has climbed to equal the highest levels achieved since the manufacturing outlook survey series from Make UK and BDO started. Output is expected to rise by about 30% in the fourth quarter of the year.
Firms are forecasting a boost to overall economic prospects from a period of greater political stability, according to the Manufacturing Outlook report for Q3 2024, with almost 6 in 10 expecting better growth over the next 12 months under the new Labour government.
Manufacturers have not seen an immediate boost from the change of government, but despite that, the report says just 6% of companies expect GDP to decline this year. The report says that output figures have turned negative for the first time in four years, but are expected to jump by a third in the fourth quarter. The recruitment picture is also looking positive.
Export orders currently exceed the domestic market, though this is forecast to change in Q4. Within what Make UK says is a mixed picture, business confidence has continued to climb to record levels.
Ahead of the Autumn Statement and Spending Review due at the end of October, Make UK is calling on Government to publish further details on the long-awaited industrial strategy, including the composition and governance of the Industrial Strategy Council, and to also commit to removing unnecessary barriers to growth, including:
- Bringing forward the UK CBAM (Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism) to 2026.
- Reviewing and uplifting apprenticeship funding bands.
- Making a greater commitment to more long-term, large scale infrastructure projects that will make the UK a more attractive place to invest.
Make UK senior economist Fhaheen Khan said:”This quarter presents a tale of two halves with output turning negative and recruitment taking a dip, yet investment remains positive and business confidence continues to climb.
“With an Autumn Budget and Spending Review fast approaching, now is the time for Government to pick up the pace and deliver on pre-election promises, most notably the publication of a long-term robust Industrial Strategy.
“This must be combined with policy levers that help not hinder growth and international competitiveness. In particular, this means bringing forward immediately the UK CBAM and taking measures to tackle the disastrous apprenticeship numbers.”