Greenhouse gas emission must fall to 80% below 1990 levels by 2035 for the UK to meet its target of net zero emissions, according to the latest report by the Climate Change Committee.
A major investment programme will be required, but the goal is “feasible and affordable if led by decisive government action now”, the committee says. UK emissions in 2019 were 41% below 1990 levels.
The CCC’s Sixth Carbon Budget (2033-2037) sets out the milestones to net zero over the next three decades in what it says is “the first ever detailed route map” to net zero for a major economy.
The committee, the UK’s independent statutory adviser on climate change, sends the key message to the government that “the 2020s must be the decisive decade of progress and action on climate change”.
But it says the cost of reaching net zero has substantially reduced compared with previous assessments, to less than 1% of GDP for the next 30 years. This is due to the falling cost of offshore wind power, and the emergence of “a range of new low-cost, low-carbon solutions in every sector”.
To achieve the goal, “a major investment programme across the country” will be required, mainly provided by the private sector. “That investment will also be the key to the UK’s economic recovery in the next decade,” the committee says.
The committee lists milestones under four key headings: Low carbon solutions, expansion of low-carbon energy supplies, reducing demand for carbon-intensive activities, and land use changes and greenhouse gas removals.
By the early 2030s, it expects all new cars and vans and all boiler replacements to be low carbon. New trucks will be low carbon by 2040. Industry will shift to using renewable electricity or hydrogen instead of fossil fuels, or will capture carbon for storage.
Offshore wind will become the backbone of the UK energy system, growing to 40GW in 2030 and 100GW by 2050. Because of new uses in transport, heating and industry, electricity demand will increase by 50% over the next 15 years.
But at the same time the amount of energy wasted in buildings will be reduced through a national project to improve insulation. Low-carbon industries such as producing hydrogen, capturing carbon, creating new woodlands and renovating and decarbonising the UK’s 28 million homes will grow, providing hundreds of thousands of jobs.
Climate Change Committee chairman Lord Deben said: “We deliver our recommendations to the government with genuine enthusiasm, knowing that Britain’s decisive zero-carbon transition brings real benefits to our people and our businesses while making the fundamental changes necessary to protect our planet.”
Under the Climate Change Act, the UK must reach net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. The Act requires the government to set a new carbon budget every five years, following the advice of the Climate Change Committee. The Sixth Carbon Budget must be legislated by June 2021.