Materials handling will be among the first major applications of autonomous machines in off-highway industries, with self-driving forklifts already operating in warehouses today, a new study by management consulting firm Arthur D Little (ADL) reports.
The study interviewed a number of industry and technology experts from OEMs, suppliers, distributors and end customers in Europe, North America and Asia.
More than 90% of participants said autonomous technology was highly relevant for them and 50% have already invested in R&D, demonstrators or first projects, with 30% currently offering semi-autonomous products.
But according to the experts the business case has to turn positive before more autonomous machines will start to be seen. “Only reliable and economic solutions will convince users,” the report says.
“Autonomous machines are tools to earn money, and users from all industry segments want lower total cost of operation and ownership compared to manually operated counterparts,” it adds.
Most respondents are seeking an additional cost reduction for autonomous machines of approximately 50% from today’s level, with prices expected to reduce as a result of R&D investments and technical progress in the automotive industry. Broad market uptake of autonomous machines is then expected around 2025.
In materials handling, however, a positive return on investment can be reached quickly with an autonomous forklift due to 24/7 operation, although the additional technology costs for the autonomous system are four times the vehicle base price. “If the warehouse has an intelligent design, break even is possible in less than one year,” one respondent reported.
Materials handling is also currently the only sector covered by the report with an existing regulatory framework for autonomous industrial trucks. But high functional safety requirements currently present a barrier to applying autonomous lift trucks in areas with human traffic or outdoor environments.
Concluding, the report says incumbents and new entrants to the autonomous machines market have to decide now what part of the new ecosystem they want to occupy, and how.
‘Regardless of whether they make, buy or partner, investments and transformation seem inevitable for them to stay in the game and avoid missing a great opportunity to reshape the off-highway vehicle industry,’ it says.